Sell At The Top Of The Market In 2023: The Big Picture

Since the halcyon days (for Sellers) of the pandemic real estate boom came to an end, the question on all Sellers' minds is: 

Is it still a good time to sell?

We have been hearing this more and more from our clients, and while they're right to consider how their goals align with a shifting market, this is often asked to get at a different, more specific, question: 

Did I miss the "peak"?

Now this is a trickier question to answer, because the "peak" of the market is subjective. As any Realtor worth their salt will tell you, each neighborhood is it's own microclimate; subject to wildly varying conditions that affect property value. While some areas in Summit are beginning to see double digit increases in Average Days on Market, some properties are still seeing multiple offers in the first 48 hours. I say the better question for sellers to ask right now is:

What is my property worth now vs. when I bought it?

By reframing the question, you're looking at the bigger picture. And for the Summit County Area, a much clearer answer comes into focus. Take a look at the graph above. This graphic breaks down the average change in sales price by town from 2019 to now (red), 2020 to now (green) and 2021 to now (yellow). As you can see, the big picture gains are huge. 

We can see some of the Summit County specific market variables that we often talk about here at play. For example, Breckenridge (where STR permits were restricted throughout 2022) only saw an increase of 11% in 2022, while Copper (where STR permits are unrestricted and unlimited) saw a whopping 41% increase in Average Sold Price in 2022.

Now, all local forecasts and reputable models, believe that 2023 will be at best a "flat" year for appreciation in our market. Meaning that the percentage change in Average Sold Price throughout the Summit Area between 2022 and 2023 will be 0% - maybe even single digit decreases in some areas. This isn't hard to imagine; nobody could think the pandemic Real Estate frenzy would last forever, and you don't need me to tell you that interest rates and inflation have wrecked havoc on Real Estate Buyers. Even though the market change is decidedly not a repeat of 2008, maybe by some specific standards the "peak" is in the rear-view mirror.

However! If you look at the big picture of property value in our area, and ask what your property is worth now versus when you purchased it, I'm very confident you're still going to like what you see. For those in areas like Silverthorne and Frisco who have seen an unimaginable 75% average gain in property value since 2019, even if we do lose 10-15% in the next year or two, your big picture still shows a big return on your investment.

So...IS it still a good time to sell?

The big picture clearly says, yes. For the past 6+ months, we've been honest with Sellers that yes, the market has changed. Yes, the days of multiple-offer-mania are behind us. Yes, you will have to accept Buyer contingenices. And yes, you can expect your property to be on the market longer if it isn't priced correctly. At the end of the day, though, the bottom-line equity you have in your property today speaks volumes. If the timing is right for you, it's a good time to sell and still catch the top of the Summit Area market.